Researchers warn that dramatic changes are needed to support basic living standards by 2050

“We’re beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth,” Gupta said. “Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature. The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don’t have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems which underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.” 

The paper states that critical resources need to be used, managed and shared fairly if Earth systems are to remain within its boundaries. Those boundaries were defined in the Earth Commission paper Safe and just Earth system boundaries published last year in Nature. That research also found that most of the vital limits within which people can thrive have already been surpassed.

The new paper identifies the “safe and just space” within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised. It also sets out paths to reach and stay within this space, so that everyone can be provided for. And it marks the first time scientists have quantified both safety and justice - a stable planet which avoids crossing boundaries and minimizes significant harm to humans, and access justice - people being able to access basic needs using the same units. This enables the calculation of the exact space per environmental domain that is left for all to use.

The researchers found that there will be no safe and just space left by 2050 unless urgent action is taken now. Without significant changes, if everyone on the planet had access to the resources required for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth would be outside its climate boundaries.

The researchers also found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a rich minority are key drivers of the shrinking safe and just space. Providing minimum resources for those who do not currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth’s systems than the pressure that is caused by the rich.

The research looked at where safe and just boundaries have been breached, with people living in poverty who are exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages. Although those living in poverty are most exposed to harm from environmental problems, everyone, including the rich, are at risk.