Dams at times of war: looming collapse of the Jebel Aulia Dam in Sudan

In April 2023, violent clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in the capital city of Khartoum and rapidly spread across the country. The two fighting forces, each vying for control over key urban centres, have transformed civilian areas into battlegrounds. As elsewhere in war zones, essential civilian infrastructure – including water infrastructure like water supply lines, bridges and dams – are purposely targeted to be controlled by rival forces. In Sudan, the area around the Jebel Aulia Dam – located 40 kilometres south of Khartoum – is one of such barraged places. This dam is strategically located near a helicopter and military base, yet more importantly it serves as a main road connecting the Dafur region in the west to the central part of the country. As such it is an essential supply route for the paramilitary forces to mobilize troops and transport military equipment.

The Jebel Aulia Dam was constructed in the 1930s in the White Nile, which is a major tributary of the Nile River conveying water from Lake Victoria downstream to the Mediterranean Sea. The dam is currently used as a water reservoir during droughts, and to control water levels upstream for irrigation abstraction and generate hydropower​. The waterbody also serves as an important fishing ground for the impoverished communities living nearby and supports extensive agriculture in the floodplains. The war has now placed this essential infrastructure in jeopardy, risking its structural integrity and threatening the livelihoods it supports.

On 18 November 2023, the conflict intensified around the dam, leading to the destruction of a movable bridge in the dam structure, which has since been repaired by the RSF​. In the end, the paramilitary forces took control of the dam and its surrounding area. This attack, along with continued assaults in the area, has rendered the site increasingly unsafe for government employees responsible for operating the dam. They all left their positions to flee to safer places, leaving the dam’s gates in a fixed position, raising concerns about the inability to regulate water levels effectively as inflows increased with the onset of the rainy season. This is particularly worrisome as the the water level in Lake Victoria reached a historic high level this year due to intensive rainfall in the wider region.  

Funded by the Water and Development Partnership Programme, an analysis of historical hydrological data and water balance modelling shows that the Jebel Aulia Dam is on the verge of a disaster, as the risks of the water levels overtopping the dam – and worse: collapse of the dam – are considerable. In September 2024, the water levels upstream of the dam had already reached record heights, yet the inability to manage the gates effectively has left the system highly vulnerable. The collapse of the dam would be catastrophic, not only directly causing devastating floods downstream that could reach as far as the suburbs of Khartoum, but also wiping out agricultural lands causing even more food insecurity in the region and destroying water supply systems and other essential civilian infrastructures.    

Communities living along the reservoir upstream of the dam are appealing to the paramilitary forces to open the gates because they are already experiencing increasing danger as the water levels continue to rise. The remotely conducted analysis indicates that the gates have most likely been opened slightly since the formal dam operators left, probably by the paramilitary forces. Aseel Mohamed, principal researcher of this study, explains, “Even though this change in gate settings may have circumvented a catastrophe for now, the current wider openings may only temporarily help relieve upstream pressure, while they also increase the risk of uncontrolled water releases and potential flooding downstream.’’

Currently the area has become a military hotspot with the paramilitary forces retreating their troops toward Jebel Aulia after the October victories by the government forces. The high level of insecurity makes efforts to maintain and operate the dam effectively nearly impossible. Old dams need routine maintenance to safeguard their stability. At present, local authorities and humanitarian organizations can only focus on flood preparedness by establishing early warning systems and communicating possible evacuation routes for communities at-risk. Yet immediate international cooperation is required to safeguard Sudan’s essential water infrastructure, particularly dams like Jebel Aulia. Yasir Mohamed, Associate Professor involved in the research, emphasizes, “Despite the 2024 flood passing safely, the risk of dam failure remains high in the absence of adequate operation and maintenance.”

Sudan already witnessed the catastrophic collapse of the Arbaat Dam in August 2024, resulting in dozens of deaths, almost 50,000 houses destroyed and severe water shortages in the nearby city, Port Sudan. This dam failure – caused by insufficient maintenance and excessive rainfall – highlights the vulnerability of critical infrastructure during the war. The threat of dam collapse in areas affected by war is well known. It was well documented that the Mosul Dam in Iraq was at the verge of catastrophic failure amid conflict in the Islamic State-controlled area between 2013 and 2017, risking millions of lives downstream. In Libya, over 20,000 people died in September 2023 due to the collapse of two dams near the city of Derna as result of extreme rainfall after decades of neglected maintenance of these dams in this war-torn country. And in June 2023, Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam was destroyed on purpose by Russian forces in an attempt to hinder planned counter attacks by the Ukraine forces, killing dozens of people, and causing massive flooding and disruption to energy and water supplies in the wider region. Therefore, dams are not only essential infrastructures, they can also turn into liabilities that can cause – wilfully of negligently – mass destruction in times of war. This calls for international monitoring of the risks of dam failure in war zones and rapid intervention where necessary.