Drought, floods contribute to conflict risk in several countries
The longest and most severe drought in recent history puts Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia at risk of conflict, according to a new quarterly update that analyses findings from a global early warning tool. Drought could also spark further conflict in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Morocco, while floods put South Sudan and Pakistan at risk of conflict.
The analysis, issued by the Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership, predicts ongoing conflict over the coming 12 months throughout much of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, where a six consecutive growing season is threatened by the ongoing drought. Citing media reports, the update notes that 43,000 people have died from the drought in Somalia, where relief efforts are hindered by attacks from insurgents.
The tool applies machine learning to predict the likelihood of conflict up to a year in advance. The WPS partnership’s latest update is based on analysis conducted since the last update of December 2022 to date and focuses on the next 12 months.
“With devastating conflicts raging in several parts of the world, it is important that the global community also devotes attention to areas with water-related problems that can contribute to such conflicts. Neglecting these serious situations now can have dire consequences”, said WPS coordinator Yasir Mohamed, IHE Delft Associate Professor of Water Resource Management.
"It is important that the global community also devotes attention to areas with water-related problems that can contribute to such conflicts. Neglecting these serious situations now can have dire consequences"
The latest update notes that drought and high temperatures compound the severe challenges faced by Syria, with water scarcity worsening the effects of a cholera outbreak that followed the earthquake in February.
Drought and heat are also plaguing Iraq, the update states, adding: “Climate change and the subsequent environmental consequences such as low rainfall and rising temperatures compound with structural and political challenges such as reduced river flows from upstream countries, lack of investment in infrastructure and poor water resource management. Consequently, tensions over water arise, sometimes erupting into violence, and forced internal migration due to loss of agricultural livelihoods.”
In Afghanistan, acute food insecurity remains a severe problem, and the ongoing drought led to smaller summer harvests. In Morocco, where rainfall is 44% below the 10-year average, the update predicts continued tension in the Oriental-Oujda region.
In South Sudan, the worst flooding in 60 years worsens an already dire food emergency, with floods contaminating boreholes and conflicts among communities seeking dry grounds. In contrast, South Sudan’s East Equatoria State, which is located in the south-east and neighbours Kenya and Ethiopia, has been hit hard by drought and conflict among local communities has been reported.
Floods caused by extreme monsoon rainfall and accelerated glacier melting devastated Pakistan, where the tool predicts ongoing and emerging conflict over the next 12 months.
The tool is developed and maintained by the IHE Delft-led WPS partnership, funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Partners include the World Resources Institute, Deltares, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), Wetlands International and International Alert as well as Oregon State University and Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations as associated partners.
About the Water, Peace and Security partnership
The WPS partnership was set up in 2018 to pioneer the development of innovative information tools and practical approaches that can support local and international actors who work in areas where with water-related risk. These tools and approaches can help predict the likelihood of and prevent water-related security threats in a timely manner.