Computer-based water modelling: no substitute for thinking

The authors – IHE Delft researcher Jonatan Godinez Madrigal, PhD candidate Bich Tran, affiliate researcher Rozemarijn ter Horst and Humboldt University Researcher Rossella Alba – question whether models "genuinely engage with the plurality of meanings and valuations of water” and call for a change in water modelling as a process to force scientists using the models to think of reality beyond pre-established calculations.

“Models are useful for computing complex processes that are difficult for humans to calculate. They can help explore the past, present, and future and consolidate hypotheses about the world,” they write. “However, using them as thinking tools can be challenging because practitioners often confuse them with reality when, in fact, they are only simplifications of reality.”

The authors wrote the blog to spark a debate on the ways models can be used and the restrictions inherent in how they are used. The blog has already attracted several comments, with one commenter warning: “Models hold the potential to make water managers lazy and dumb,” while another notes: “Models can indeed, sometimes, and with the right people, be invaluable to water resources management and to probe all sorts of hypothesis about the inter-connectivity of land and water resources, their use, and possible future scenarios.”