Aftab Nazeer earns PhD for research on climate change impacts on Upper Indus Basin water resources

I investigated the water resources of the high-elevation Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which is the source of water for millions of people in Pakistan and the world’s largest irrigation system. In this basin, the amount of precipitation is largely unknown due to the complex weather system and sparse measurements. Moreover, snow and glacier contributions to river flow are also unknown. This is a problem, particularly considering the effects of climate change, which lead to serious concerns about current and future water availability and management. My research assessed the precipitation, snow- and glacier melt, and water availability for UIB under current and future climates. My results revealed that most precipitation in the study area falls in the winter and spring, and that the river flow depends more on snow- and glacier melt than rainfall. My results further projected that the future will see increasing temperatures and precipitation, which will increase the river flow. The findings of my study may assist policymakers and other stakeholders with respect to hydropower and reservoir development, sustained agriculture production, climate change adaptation, and efficient water resources management.

I have several good memories from this challenging journey. I will never forget the exciting activities including fun days out, BBQs with other PhD candidates, breaks and cultural nights at IHE Delft. These good memories and fun activities helped me to regain my energy when I needed it the most. I got married during the first year of my PhD, and while moving forward in my PhD journey, my family also grew and now we are five.

A PhD journey is full of challenges for anyone even in very normal circumstances. The Covid-19 pandemic arrived exactly the middle of my PhD, when I was supposed to progress. The most challenging part of my PhD studies was working in pandemic-related lockdown situations. With kids at home, I was hardly able to work from home. So, with special permission, I kept working from the IHE Delft, all alone on the third floor of the building, which was a busy area before the pandemic.  My mental health suffered slightly, but somehow, I kept surviving.

In an ideal world, my PhD work would serve humanity. The world’s freshwater resources are very limited. With the rapid population growth and climate change crises, these resources are depleting very fast. This is the time to act: we need accurate information about our water resources so that we can properly manage them. Policymakers and relevant stakeholders need information to act, but there is a serious gap between what they need and what is available. My PhD study attempted to minimise this gap. However, a lot still needs to be done. With an efficient manner and I am sure this can make a difference.

One of my PhD propositions is “A PhD is a big commitment involving a lot of sacrifices; one should only start if one can clearly identify why it is necessary.” If I had a chance to start over, I would rethink whether to start a PhD. This consideration is also important because the level of dedication required is only possible if one is really highly motivated. But once I started, I found the journey challenging and exciting. I got out of my comfort zone, explored and encountered wonderful opportunities. In the next few years, I hope to share my knowledge and expertise with relevant stakeholders to help them develop into experts. Being an academic is a wonderful opportunity to stay engaged with the research and contribute.

Analysis of the Hydro-Climatic Regime of the Snow Covered and Glacierised Upper Indus Basin Under Current and Future Climates

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is the source of water for millions of people in Pakistan and the world’s largest irrigation system, but its hydro-climatic regime is poorly known. Moreover, the recent acceleration in climate change (CC) leads to serious concerns about current and future water availability and management. This study assessed the hydro-climatic regime, including precipitation, snow-and glacier melt, and water availability for two sub-basins of UIB under current and future climates. The Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model was used to simulate the different components of the hydro-climatic regime, driven by elevation-distributed precipitation from global gridded products. Results revealed that most precipitation in the study area falls in the winter and spring, and river flow depends more on snow-and glacier melt than rainfall. The future projection showed increasing temperature and precipitation and thus increasing flow. The future glacier melt simulations suggest increasing melt contributions, especially from the higher elevations. The findings of this study may assist policymakers and other stakeholders with respect to hydropower and reservoir development, sustained agriculture production, CC adaptation, and efficient water resources management. Future work is recommended to acquire more observational data, field-based investigations and future glacier recessions.