PhD Defence Kees Nederhoff
On Thursday 20 June 2024, the PhD Defence and Awarding Ceremony of Kees Nederhoff from the Netherlands, will take place. His promotor is Professor Dano Roelvink and his copromotors are Dr. Ap van Dongeren and Dr. José Antolínez.
The title of his thesis is:
NAVIGATING THE STORM
New Approaches to Tropical Cyclone Risk Analyses and Their Implications for Coastal Flooding Predictions
Research summary:
This dissertation delves into the dynamics of tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes or typhoons) focusing on their role in coastal flooding, a phenomenon worsened by climate change and increased human activity. It aims to enhance flood risk analysis and forecasting accuracy by improving the descriptions of cyclones' wind geometry and pathways. The study distinguishes between operational risk analysis, which deals with short-term forecasting surrounding a cyclone event, and strategic risk analysis, which considers long-term climate variability and its impacts over decades.
Significant advancements have been made in several aspects including accurately representing tropical cyclone conditions through the empirical derivation of stochastic relationships for key storm size parameters. Furthermore, the thesis introduces a novel methodology for strategic risk analysis using computer-generated storm pathways (synthetic tracks) to overcome the limitations of historical data scarcity. The research also compares cyclone-induced flooding to other sources for a case study in the United States, revealing the predominant role of tropical cyclones in severe flood hazards despite a higher frequency of flooding that is caused by extratropical cyclones. Moreover, this dissertation presents a new operational risk assessment framework capable of simulating thousands of scenarios to aid in effective storm forecasting, particularly in regions lacking extensive data.
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