PhD Defence Hesham Elmilady
On Wednesday 23 April 2025, the PhD Defence and Awarding Ceremony of Mr. Hesham Elmilady from Egypt, will take place. His promotor is Professor Dano Roelvink and his copromotor Dr. Mick van der Wegen.
The title of his thesis is:
Modeling Sea Level Rise Impact on Estuarine Morphodynamics
Research Summary
Many estuaries worldwide have intertidal flats and associated unique ecosystems. The fate of these systems under sea level rise (SLR) scenarios is yet unclear. This research aims to investigate SLR impact on the long-term morphodynamic development of the estuarine environment by applying a process-based, numerical modelling approach (Delft3D).
Fundamental explorations with idealized estuarine model setups analyze governing processes, including wind wave dynamics, sediment properties, and grid resolution. Century time scale hindcasts in two case studies - San Pablo Bay (USA) and the Western Scheldt Estuary (Netherlands) – show significant skill in reproducing unique historic bathymetric datasets. Forecasts under various SLR scenarios show that morphodynamic adaptation lags behind SLR, so that intertidal area declines depending on SLR rate, sediment supply, and sediment properties. Extreme SLR scenarios (1.67 and 3.02 m per century) could result in a 91% and 54% loss of intertidal area in San Pablo Bay and the Western Scheldt, respectively.
The results of this research advances understanding of SLR impact on the morphodynamic evolution of estuaries. They also show that, despite their complexity, process-based models are valuable tools for morphodynamic forecasts. Delft3D-type of models can be used in future studies to investigate potential adaptation measures and to design sustainable estuarine management strategies.
Livestream
Below you can find the schedule:
09.30 – 09.45 Presentation
10.00 – 11.30 Public defence & Awarding ceremony
Livestream link: to be provided later